A recent study led by Prof. LI Yaoming from the Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography (XIEG) of the Chinese Academy of Sciences has identified significant imbalances in farmland ecosystem services (FESs) across Central Asia, posing substantial challenges to achieving the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) in the region.

The study was published in Agricultural Water Management.

In this study, the researchers conducted a comprehensive assessment of the supply-demand dynamics of four key FESs—water yield, sand fixation, soil conservation, and grain production—in Central Asia's rainfed and irrigated croplands under three climate scenarios (SSP245, SSP370, and SSP585) spanning from 1995 to 2099.

The findings indicate that grain production and soil conservation services show a considerable supply surplus and a notable demand deficit, while water yield exhibits a notable imbalance with supply falling short of demand in irrigated farmland.

Furthermore, the researchers assessed the contribution of these FESs to specific SDGs, finding that their impact on SDG2 (Zero Hunger) ranges from 35.52% to 38.14%, followed by SDG15 (Life on Land) at 34.51% to 36.74%, and SDG6 (Clean Water and Sanitation) at 27.88% to 30.65%. Projections for the 2050s and 2090s suggest that the overall SDG index values of agroecosystems in Central Asia will decline.

This study highlights regional variations in sustainable agricultural development objectives arid zones and provides a scientific basis for implementing targeted climate change adaptation strategies in Central Asia.