A study led by the Institute of Atmospheric Physics of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, has revealed a significant southward shift in the formation of hurricanes over the North Atlantic Ocean.

This trend, observed since 1979, is attributed to changing wind patterns and global warming, raising alarms about heightened disaster risks for low-latitude island nations and North American coastal areas.

Tropical cyclones, including hurricanes, rank among the most devastating natural disasters, causing extensive economic damage and loss of life due to powerful winds, torrential rainfall, and storm surges. As global temperatures continue to rise, understanding the formation and evolution of these storms is critical for enhancing disaster preparedness and climate adaptation strategies. However, the influence of climate change on tropical cyclone activity remains uncertain.

Focusing on the North Atlantic region, where earlier studies had identified a slight southward movement in the location of maximum hurricane intensity, the research team analyzed data from 1979 onward. They found a pronounced southward migration in the formation of hurricanes—defined as tropical cyclones with maximum sustained winds of approximately 33 meters per second. This shift has coincided with an increase in hurricane frequency in the southern North Atlantic, between 10° and 20°N.

The study links this trend to a reduction in vertical wind shear, a critical factor in hurricane formation, driven by a weakening north-south temperature gradient. This gradient has diminished due to accelerated warming in the subtropical troposphere, a result of increased atmospheric stability. By utilizing 39 climate models from the CMIP6 project, the researchers confirmed that external forcing factors, particularly greenhouse gas emissions, are the primary drivers of these changes, with natural variability playing a secondary role.

Published in NPJ Climate and Atmospheric Science, the study highlights the urgent need for improved monitoring and preparedness in regions likely to experience increased hurricane activity. As global warming progresses, understanding these trends will be vital for mitigating the impacts of future storms.