Transition in energy and transportation sectors will increase the demand for minerals as emerging technologies (solar, wind, and electric vehicles) require more minerals than fossil based technologies. However, minerals impacts on the sustainability of emerging technologies go beyond the minerals directly utilized in these technologies, and their availability and environmental impacts, to the minerals coexisting with them in nature.   

In a recent study published in Communications Earth & Environment, Prof. Ayman Elshkaki from the Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS) explored the impact of increasing demand for several rare earth elements (REEs) in wind power and electric vehicle technology on the supply of other naturally coexisting REEs a nd the environmental impacts associated with the two technologies and their long-term sustainability. 

 The study is part of an ongoing project that deals with the relationship between material-energy-water-climate.  

According to Prof. Ayman Elshkaki, the highest oversupply of all REEs is the result of dysprosium demand in wind and electric vehicles technologies.

Annual energy, water, and CO₂ emissions (E-W-CO₂) associated with the production of oversupplied REEs by 2050 is expected to be 4.9 to 6.2 times those associated with neodymium and dysprosium production, and cumulative E-W-CO₂ is expected to be 5.5 to 6.4 times.   

Annual CO2 emissions associated with REEs demand for and oversupply by 2030 is expected to be 22% to 29% of the CO₂ emissions reduction under the International Energy Agency's Global electric vehicle (EV) Outlook 2018 from the use of electric vehicles without changing the power mix, and 10% to 14% of CO₂ emissions reduction from the use of electric vehicles and grid decarbonization. 

He also analyzed possible options to alleviate the metal supply and demand balance problem. Improvement in resources efficiency reduces  emissions by 39%, supply of dysprosium from its rich deposits reduces CO₂ emissions by 78%, and dysprosium recycling by 35%. Combined demand and supply measures reduce CO₂ emissions by 90%.

The study also highlights several other supply-demand balance problems related to metals required for emerging technologies when addressing the sustainability of emerging technologies. 

This research was funded by the Strategic Priority Research Program of CAS, the National Key Research and Development Program of China, the International Partnership Program of CAS,and the China-Pakistan Joint Research Center on Earth Sciences.